A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
